By Victoria Tillson Evans, Ph.D.
As a college consultant, the big question I keep getting from parents and students alike is: what are the chances of getting in next year? Can you blame people for asking? With changes about college admissions practices in the news cycle nearly every day, families are correct to wonder what it all means for those who are about to apply.
Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer. But to be fair, no one does. There are too many variables in play and too many independent institutional decisions that will be made to make any sort of clear-cut analysis. So, instead, to help you see what those who work in college admissions see, I’ve spelled out most of the variables and done some back-of-the-envelope calculations for you. Here’s what I’ve got.
College Closures: Experts are expecting a number of colleges to close their doors permanently as a result of the strain that the pandemic has put on their finances. Some estimates, like this one, place the number somewhere between 500–1,000 schools! Since there are currently about 2,400 four-year public and private nonprofit institutions in the U.S., that’s a significant proportion. So let’s take away 750, or the average of expected closures, and subtract that from the 2400, which leaves us with 1650 colleges that survive.
We can’t assume that all 750 colleges will close within a year, so let’s spread that out over 8 years for good measure, and divide our estimate of closures evenly among the 8 years, which leaves us with roughly 94 colleges that will close each year. Within the colleges most likely to close, at least according to U.S. News and World Report, there are fewer than 1,000 students. So, if we estimate that there are 900 students per school (I don’t have the actually numbers), that means that roughly 84,600 students will lose their college each year for the next 8 years.
The students currently enrolled at these schools will have two options: reapply and enroll elsewhere either as a transfer of first-year student, or drop out of college entirely. What they will choose is unknown. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like the colleges at-risk of closing will push a significant percentage of students to seek spots at other colleges, but they do disproportionately affect students who are applying to moderately to non-selective institutions.
Number of College Students in the U.S.: According to the U.S. government, there are roughly 9,897,000 full-time, undergraduate students in 4-year, non-profit colleges in the U.S. Within this population, there are a number of students at-risk of dropping out every year, but for the 2020–2021 school year, colleges are envisioning roughly a 20% overall drop in enrollment. So if we do the math, that means that 7,917,600 students will be enrolled for the 2020–2021 school year. Of the students requesting a year off, let’s be kind and claim only 20%, since the option to take a year off is not open to all college students and only 56% of students graduate from 4-year colleges within six years. That leaves us with 395,880 intended freshmen who may not join the college they got into next year.
It’s difficult to know how many of those students will request a gap year, drop out altogether, or simply plan to reapply next year (when, fingers crossed, we have a vaccine), but you can imagine that several thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of more students, will be seeking enrollment at the same time as next year’s seniors graduating in 2021.
So, does this mean there will be fewer spots for the Class of 2021, or will colleges simply boost the number of students they’ll admit this coming admissions cycle? It’s hard to tell, since every college will be making individual decisions based on institutional needs and priorities. What we do know is that the major loss in revenue caused by thousands of students not attending college next year, along with the decrease in tuition revenue that comes with offering Zoom University, rather than Normal University, will obviously put significant financial pressure on colleges that depend on tuition dollars to sustain their businesses (yes, yes, colleges are businesses, and those most suffering in the current crisis). So how will this further impact admissions practices? Here is what I see happening:
- Colleges will favor full-pay applicants, because of the significant revenue losses.
- Colleges will continue to implement test-optional policies to entice more students to apply. Traditionally speaking, private colleges that went test optional saw a 29% increase in applications; public colleges saw an 11% increase. With so many colleges going test optional this year, however, it will be difficult to predict the test optional movement’s impact on application volumes to each individual school.
- Whether or not students are even able to take the SAT or ACT later this summer or in the fall remains to be seen, and the lack of tests will decrease the number of applications to colleges still requiring test scores.
- Since far fewer students will be able to test multiple times, and test scores tend to rise through the third attempt (see the graph on p. 2), we can expect overall test scores of applicants to be lower on average.
- There will be an influx of applications to in-state public universities and community colleges, because of the financial pressure that the pandemic has placed on families.
So let’s do two case studies.
Case Study 1
Let’s say that you can afford to pay the full tuition of a private college that has just gone test optional, and that your GPA is within a few hundredths of the average but you’re applying without test scores. Instead of receiving 50,000 applications, like in past years, Private College will now receive many more applications, because it has gone test optional, opening it as an option to people like you. If we work with the previous average increase that colleges see when they go test optional, that takes the applicant pool to 64,500 (50,000 students x 1.29 increase). Now let’s add 4,000 more from students who decided to take the 2020–2021 year off (I’m just picking a number, and whether or not we can add those students depends on whether or not Private College has just added those openings to the Class of 2025). When all is said and done, it looks like there will be a large increase in selectivity (if my numbers were accurate and not estimations built on estimations) with a much larger applicant pool of 68,500 to fill a class of, let’s say, 10,000 students. It, thus, seems like it will be harder for you to get in.
But wait! The college is hurting financially, like all colleges, so those who applied hoping for financial aid may get admitted, if the school is need-blind, but they won’t get the scholarships they need to attend. Since the school is private, many families will see that its sticker-price is way higher than In-State University’s, which the student also got into, or many will just steer clear from applying in the first place. Let’s say that 20% fewer students apply because of initial sticker shock. That means we’re left with an applicant pool of 54,800. Some families will say, “We’ll just figure it out,” and take out loans, but many more families with financial need will go through the process, realize how painful the current economic climate is, and choose to enroll at In-State University this year. So, the college turns to its longer-than-ever waitlist to admit new applicants who can help the college balance its books (waitlisted students very rarely get financial aid, so it helps to be full-pay).
But what about the students who deferred for a year? Are they going to take spots for the Class of 2025, or will their numbers just be added in place of those who deferred or dropped out of the Class of 2024 to take a gap year? And will students applying with test scores have a leg up on those like you, who don’t? Or will the college just pretend that scores don’t matter? It is score optional, not test blind, so maybe your chances really aren’t that good. Ultimately, more students will be admitted over the course of the admissions cycle until the class is full, but no one really knows how being a score optional, full-pay applicant with average stats will ultimately play out.
Case Study 2
Now let’s presume that your family can’t afford to pay full tuition, so you decide to apply to an in-state, public institution that has not gone test optional. You have a GPA and test scores that are around the 50th percentile mark. Last year, In-State University received 50,000 applications, but this year, since many students have not yet taken the SAT or ACT, or they haven’t taken it enough times to hit the 50th percentile range from previous years, 40% of applicants choose not to apply (I’m really just picking a number — we have no idea how this will look). That leaves the school with only 30,000 applicants this year. But since more in-state students will be applying to a variety of in-state schools this year due to financial constraints, let’s increase the applicant pool by 10% over last year’s numbers (in-state students often apply to in-state institutions anyways), which leaves us with 35,000. Let’s also add 4,000 more students from last year’s pool who are reapplying or who took a gap year. That still presents a major decrease in applications: down to 39,000 from 50,000. So in theory, your chances of getting in are better than ever (if my numbers were anything close to the reality of the situation).
But wait! You’re not full-pay, and the college is really hurting from all of the lost revenue this year, so even though your academic statistics are around the 50th percentile, the admissions office has been directed by In-State University’s President to recruit 25% more full-pay students (again, I’m just picking a number). If the college typically accepts 25,000 students for a class of 10,000 students (they expect 60% of accepted students to decline), then they need 6,250 more of its accepted and attending applicants to be full-pay. That means that, given all of my make-believe numbers, your chances of getting in may be slightly worse. But, what if only 20% of applicants choose not to apply because of lower test scores, and everything else holds the same, then you’re looking at an applicant pool of 49,000 vs. 50,000 with a much higher preference for full-pay students, so your chances of getting in are probably worse than before the crisis. Plus, since out-of-state applicants typically pay a lot more in tuition and fees than in-state applicants, the university may decide to give preference to out-of-state students, leaving an in-state applicant like you less likely to get in. So, in reality, who knows what your chances are!
Final Thoughts
Now that you can see just some of the variables that will come into play as colleges make admissions decisions this year, and realize how little real data anyone has regarding how the economic crisis and lack of testing opportunities will impact who gets in and who does not, I hope that you cast a wide net when it comes to college selection. I also hope that you will bear with everyone involved in college admissions when they say that they have no idea what your chances of getting in are. We are all just figuring it out. So the next time you try to calculate your admissions odds in the age of Covid-19, just remember this: nobody knows.
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